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Is It a Bubble?

The Memo by Howard Marks

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"Instead of happening over time, bursts of progress happen simultaneously across different domains, and with mounting enthusiasm comes increased risk tolerance and strong network effects. The fear of missing out, or FOMO, attracts even more participants, entrepreneurs, and speculators, further reinforcing this positive feedback loop. Like bubbles, FOMO tends to have a bad reputation, but it's sometimes a healthy instinct. After all, none of us wants to miss out on a once-in-a-lifetime chance to build the future. In other words, Bubbles based on technological progress are good because they excite investors into pouring in money—a good bit of which is thrown away—to carpet-bomb a new area of opportunity and thus jump-start its exploitation. The key realization seems to be that if people remained patient, prudent, analytical, and value-insistent, novel technologies would take many years—and perhaps decades—to be built out. Instead, the hysteria of the bubble causes the process to be compressed into a very short period, with some of the money going into life-changing investment in the winners, but a lot of it being incinerated. A bubble has aspects that"

The Memo by Howard Marks·Is It a Bubble?
13:0314:25(82.3s)

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February 19, 2026·Create your own snippet →