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Uncontrolled Opinions

Highlights from NABE 2025 TP Symposium

"Excellent. This is fun. Great conference. Uh, um, you know, if, if you're on the fence about attending, would highly recommend, uh, attending. You know, it's the best transfer pricing conference in my estimation. Exactly. Yes, there is, and would love to see you there."

43:0843:24

David Senra

Ed Catmull, Co-founder of Pixar

"Steve has famously said, and I've heard a few other people say this, that he learned more about the art of management from you than anybody else that he ever met. Boy, he didn't tell me that. I would say we were just completely different. But what are these mechanisms you're saying to like get to these other levels that you used? Well, one of them is the discussion is always about the topic. It isn't about who's right. So for me, the example would be in a healthy brain trust meeting, because you've got people working on a film. So what are the dynamics when you come together as a group in order to discuss something, and you're discussing something that has problems. Just the nature of all these films is it may be a great idea underneath it, but it's not gelling or it's not working right. The creative team presenting it know that it doesn't work, but it also means they're vulnerable. They feel vulnerable, and they're presenting it to their colleagues and people who are very successful. So if you're aware of that, then you can actually give them space in order to listen, because that's what we really want is for them to listen. But there are other dynamics that are going on. There are people in the room who may be new to the room, and they may want to demonstrate that they're capable of contributing. So if they put out an idea and it doesn't work, then they may feel like they've embarrassed themselves or they haven't shown themselves worthy. They're now thinking about their relationship to it rather than about the problem. So that's a psychological thing that happens in the group. I throw out an idea, is it accepted or rejected? That becomes a personal thing."

4:086:02

AI and I

How a Writer Uses AI Without Losing His Voice

"I also am totally fine with if the whole point of humanity was to carry the football of consciousness over a line and to create a training set for these things, and then we all die. I am also fine with that. This is like, again, one of my heresies is that like, I like am totally fine with that was our role in the universe was to just carry this weird football of consciousness over the, oh, and like barely get it over the goal line as like Trump and political chaos happens and like the Cold War almost destroys us all. It's like we're barely, we're like dodging all these, like all these like people trying to tackle us and like all these crazy things and we just barely get it over and then we die and that's fine. And then the machines like create all these spaceships and like do whatever they need to do. That's, that's totally, I, I'm okay with that. I don't think we're that special."

48:0048:44

Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast

🔬 The Coolest Diffusion Research Isn't in LLMs — Evan Feinberg & Sergey Edunov, Genesis Molecular AI

"people love debate about success rates in, in clinical trials. But the reality is if one focuses on those drug candidates that are aimed at proteins that have a close genetic linkage to a disease and/or at least where the biology is well understood, where the animal models translate well to disease, where the molecule is predicted to have good pharmacokinetics, as in the levels in the blood in patients or in serum are going to be high enough, those molecules have fairly high FDA approval rates. The success rate from Phase 1 to end of Phase 3 is substantially higher than average. People love to cite the 10% success rate, but that's really a lowball because we often know what genes, what proteins, what targets are causing disease. They're just really hard to drug, or the molecules we put in the, in patients are inferior to the, the target product profile that, that they deserve. In the cases where, if you just look at the preclinical data, you focus on good targets with good biology that are predicted to be distributed well and have good safety profiles, those molecules are very likely to get approved and create tremendous value for patients. And so our view is, I think about the physicians that run trials that are clamoring for those kinds of molecules. I think about the patients that looking for more selective therapies. And so our view is that is the highest leverage application of AI in healthcare, medicine more broadly."

30:3832:18

Uncontrolled Opinions

Interco Financing and Swaps

"Yeah, yes. So documentation is, is indeed crucial, I think. My advice would always be to, to deal upfront with the— with setting it arm's length interest rate. That makes life quite easier than doing something afterwards. Um, then again, there are options for both, right? So it's always better to have a benchmark study in place than having nothing in place. And— but I think 3 topics are key here. So, so that's, um, yeah, having your TP report ready, your transfer pricing reports, So if any questions come in that you basically have documented the choice you have made and analysis you have done, you should also monitor basically your positions, had that what's actually agreed in— uh, or share— then I'll basically also go into the third one. You should have an intercompany agreement and you should have monitoring in place that what is actually agreed in the intercompany agreement, uh, that is also being dealt with on a day-to-day basis. So Sometimes there's a mismatch, um, and yeah, that's something tax authorities may also use when, yeah, assessing your, uh, your interest rates, but also the transaction as a whole. So it's not a question only of whether the 5% is at arm's length or the 7%, but it could be that the full, uh, deducted interest could be denied, basically. So that's also something to consider. So it's really important to have proper documentation in place."

17:3318:54

The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett

The Insulin & Heart Doctor: The Fastest Way To Burn Dangerous Visceral Fat. This is How Insulin Is Quietly Clotting Your Blood! - Dr Pradip Jamnadas

"intermittently you can still do a 36-hour fast. That means normal healthy people, you and me, we should still be doing one 36-hour fast at least once a month. So we'll go to that, we'll go to that. Fasting must still become part of your program. But you don't need to stay in ketogenesis all the time. Remember also that when you are in ketogenesis, you are also in autophagy. How much autophagy can you do? That means you're recycling all your organelles inside your cells. What does that mean in simple terms for someone that doesn't know the term autophagy? Okay, so bottom line is the cell senses that there is no new parts coming in here. So it takes the redundant organelles inside the cells and breaks them down. Packages them up into these little packets and exports them out of the cells. So these cells, all your cells in the body now are functioning at a much more efficient level. So mitochondria also have autophagy. So you're getting new mitochondria, you're repairing your mitochondria, and you know, it's all about mitochondria, right? Your energy— mitochondria are those organs organelles inside each cell, and we just think of them as only an energy source, that, "Oh yeah, my mitochondria, they make ATP." That's not the whole story. Yes, they produce ATP, but they also produce this thing called reactive oxygen species, and thereby, they influence the metabolism of your— of your cell as well. They send signals. They send signals to your chromosomes so that you start producing new proteins, you start producing new molecules. So your mitochondria are very important. If you have old mitochondria, you're going to have fatigue, tiredness. But when you get mitophagy, one reason why you feel so good after a fast, because you have new mitochondria, they are much more efficient in producing ATP and less reactive oxygen species."

40:2642:41

Acquired

Nintendo's Origins

"Of course he doesn't have a name, but yeah. So the legend goes that as they're debating this, the landlord of their warehouse in Tequila either shows up or sends a letter. It's unclear. Shows up because they were way behind on rent because this freaking company didn't make any money. Demands the rent because they're late. And the way I know he shows up is because he starts jumping around and ranting and raving and waving his arms in the air. And he's, like, super animated. And they can see him there. And he's got this big bushy mustache. He's this Italian guy named Mario Segale. Mario Segale. And this is how Super Mario gets his name. Amazing. Totally amazing. They named the girlfriend Pauline, I think it was the either wife or girlfriend or of one of the guys working at the company at Nintendo of America at the time. Yeah. So they named her Pauline because the warehouse manager who was taking a lot of the heat from Mario Segale and directing it away from the Nintendo guys and sort of like taking the hits for them. His wife was named Polly, so they named the character Pauline after her as a thank you to him. Nice."

100:55101:59

Private Feed

Acquired the Podcast

"a group chat suggested that I listen, that me and everybody else in the group chat listen to a podcast he had recently come across called Acquired by Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal, and in particular an episode about Mars Incorporated, the candy company. Um, and I thought, well, I don't know, I need something to listen to. And I don't know, he was very enthusiastic about it, so I went and looked it up in Overcast, and the episode is It's like 4 and a half hours long. I was like, what the hell is Jaukit talking about? I'm not listening to a 4 and a half hour episode of a podcast. And I thought, well, I trust Daniel. He was so enthusiastic. So I start playing and it's really good. It is so freaking good. And it is, it's not really 4 and a half hours of two guys riffing. It is pretty scripted, but it is actually— and I would love to talk about it more— it is an incredibly innovative format where it is sort of like a documentary film with research and, uh, a lot of research and a script, but it is also like a regular podcast, like Dithering, like with two hosts who are very familiar with each other having a conversation, and they clearly don't know everything that the other host knows about the topic, even though they've done some research and clearly have an outline of how they're going to tell it. And I'm listening and Of course I did not listen in one fell swoop. It is this, you know, 4.5 hours is sort of, you know, and I can't really knock long podcasts. The talk show is often over 2 hours. And my thinking, and the way I know people listen to it is they listen to it like reading a book. You read until you run out of time and then you put a bookmark, you pause your podcast and you come back to it. I kept, I just could, I was like making excuses to go run errands so I could go back to listening. [...] Now the Acquired guys, it's actually amazing. You're totally right. It's, it's a really incredible like concept and business that's really blown up the last few years. Uh, they, they started out doing mostly like ages ago, ages and ages ago. I think they actually started trying to mimic us. And doing like a subscription sort of thing. And they quickly realized actually what we're really good at is these historical type of podcasts. They did, I think, a lot of tech companies originally to start, and they got pretty big in the tech area, but now they do companies of all sorts. They have like these super premium sponsors. They have like seasons where they do like, uh, I think it's 6 per season and they do 2 seasons a year or something like that, or might be 4 per season and 2 per year. But they do like one podcast a month. But when you listen to one, you understand why it takes them so long to do a podcast. And like, actually, I feel like I got lucky to be on in 2022 because like the quality of like the companies that they cover and like the, their sponsors and all sort of thing has like exploded since then. I'm like, I feel like I snuck in."

3:126:47

Private Feed

An Interview with Parallel Founder Parag Agarwal About Valuing Content on the Agentic Web

"What are Shapley values? Um, what's, explain, Eli Five, explain to me like I'm five. Shapley values is this very general concept from cooperative game theory that if a few people end up collaborating together and creating a whole that is bigger than the sum of parts. Right now, the pie got larger. How do you divide up this pie among all of them to maximize incentive to participate in whatever this cooperation is? Right. So Shapley was a Nobel Prize-winning economist, game theorist, who came up with this notion of Shapley values, which maximizes participation. Now, the really cool thing about this is that it also has been shown that outside of cooperative games, even open market mechanics where people are competing, right? Many of those situations also converge to people essentially extracting Shapley values from such collaboration or such markets, right? So what, so what, what, what's the uncooperative game or the competitive game aspect is super important 'cause this is why this could sort of scale broadly, but just walk me, you did the sort of ABC example before. If we have 4 or 5, let's say the mini bundle or whatever, and we're selling something, you can sell it for more money, like, like just at a very high level. How do I figure out who's most responsible for the value there? So, so let me walk through, uh, for an example, let's say you're trying to buy gloves, okay? A left glove and a right glove that makes a pair for you, right? You get value 1 if you get 1 left and 1 right glove, right? Let's say there are 3 people selling gloves. One of them has a left glove, 2 of them have a copy of the right glove each. All three of them show up to you and you're like, okay, how do I value the left glove versus the right glove? Like, how do I buy this? Turns out if you did the Shapley value math, you roughly end up paying them 4x for the left glove. Interesting. Yeah, because it's the only one. That's what the math leads to, right? And so that's an example which shows that if you have more differentiated, scarce commodity to bring to a marketplace, you will extract more value from it. Right?"

23:0025:23

David Senra

Tobi Lütke, Shopify

"Everything is about outcomes. What's the affirmation part though? The affirmation, like, if you tell yourself or write down 100 times something about yourself, that writes it into the neurofrontal cortex at such a deep level that your brain will start reconciling you to that. It just works. I've used that very often to, like, I was terrified of public speaking until I just sat down for, like, a week and every day I spent, like, 10 minutes just writing that I like public speaking. I love public speaking. You wrote that down. I know, yes. And now you love it. Yeah. Like a week later. And I knew it's not— this works when you know what you're doing, right? Like, you don't even— it's like, it's not like a placebo. It's like, it's actually like you just actively change your frontal cortex in this moment. So I use this often. I sort of write to myself, message in a bottle,"

42:2343:18

Dialectic

41: Henrik Karlsson: Strolling Through Life's Labrynths

"I always turn to different authors at different points in my life where I'm struggling with certain things. So like, as we talked about earlier, I've been like struggling with like, what's the next step of my creative journey? So then it's been natural for me to turn to people like Brian Eno and just like, you know, you read his diaries, you read, listen to interviews he's done and like his biography and trying to piece together how he's done it. And that, you know, it gives you some models and it feels like in some ways it's like easier for me to talk to him because it's like the situation I'm in right now, like if it's not that many people who have been in that situation. Like none of my friends have."

146:39147:23

FOMO Investing

Michael Burry Unchained and His Newsletter Gang

"the boy who cries wolf and then listen to, you know, you can, you can read his newsletter. You can read Nvidia's response to some of his claims. You can read Alex Karp or you can watch Alex Karp yell at him, at Burry. Amazing that even the CEO of $300 billion company feels the need to respond like it's a shouting match and it's going to affect his success. I like the fact that he is thinking long-term. So much thinking is so reactionary to today's headlines and trying to say, well, this happened, now oil prices are going to respond this way or whatever. It provides a great balance to the market. And, you know, we'll have to see, is the clock right 2 times a day or is it, is it, was he, is he just kind of putting out an overall warning to the market? I do believe he has skin in the game. He said he reestablished his positions after he closed his fund."

33:1334:18