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"it's the most ambitious thing in oncology, but it's also the hardest. Like, and in terms of what their narrative is, you're not being asked to believe it works. You're being asked to believe it works everywhere, first time, forever, and that all of the money in that whole space will go to Moderna. And usually markets price like one of those things. We're pricing in all of those things into Moderna stock right now. And, you know, like you said with melanoma as well, like, it's not hard to understand, like, in oncology, melanoma is the easy exam. It's like, it has the highest mutation load of any common cancer. There are hundreds of targets to choose from. It's already responds to immunotherapy better than anything else, right? And in Moderna's case, you dive a little bit deeper as well. And the trials that worked were an adjuvant melanoma where patients are already surgically cleared, no visible tumor, immune system's intact. It's already the single most forgiving setting in oncology. And almost all of us are one degree of separation from someone who's had cancer. And we know what the toll it can take. So everyone should be able to understand what I mean when I say, like, surgically cleared, no visible tumor, immune system intact. Because we've seen the other side of that, too. And most of the value in the model and in the pricing is coming from lung, kidney, and bladder tumors with a fraction of the mutations. Kidney cancer has 10 times fewer. Fewer targets, harder vaccine. And then you don't have to look further. You're looking into the same space. In the last couple of months, there's five randomized control trials of mRNA cancer vaccines, right? You had Moderna's phase two, which was keynote in adjuvant melanoma win. And then this one, which is a win, which is waiting for the HR data. But irrespective to that, you know, you have to acknowledge that the interim hit. And then you had BioNTech in metastatic melanoma missed, in adjuvant collateral stop for futility, in head and neck today, which we literally, you know, the market was told today, that also missed. So out of five in the same space, using the same technique, only two of them won in the easiest of cancers to treat. And it was the same drug, same tumor, in the same setting. Every randomized test outside of that, outside adjuvant melanoma has failed. And there's no evidence to suggest that, like, that's the only evidence, that's the concrete evidence there. Everything else is an idea. Yeah. But the market's telling me that that idea has actually already been successful and Moderna is going to nail the launch and they're going to be able to split the economics with Merck and still hit, you know, garner all the revenues in the whole space for all the patients. And, you know, everyone's just going to adapt to using vaccines and there'll be no other need for other treatments and the whole time will just go to them. It doesn't work like that. And that's the thing which, over time, will become more and more clear. And that's what I'm trying to warn investors from, too. Like, you're sitting on a ticking time bomb. At some point, this is going to unravel, whether it unravels now in the 200s or 250s. And when it unravels, it's not just unraveling to, like, 150. This is a double -digit stock because that will accurately reflect the revenues that they're going to generate."

23:45 – 27:25

"Like take Abivax, for example, it's 6 billion enterprise value where you have a drug that could potentially do 10 billion in peak sales. And that's just sort of absurd where like, how do you have a drug, which is, and it's not a phase one drug. It's not a novel idea. It's like, it's gone through rigorous amount of trials. It's commercial stage. You know, it's almost ready to be approved. Pre -commercial stage in the sense that, you know, they were going to file the NDA, but there's just no buyers. And at this moment in time, no one wants to risk buying on valuation because you just don't know where the story, you know, the narrative for the biotech space will sort of reverse. And Moderna has a large part to that. Like all conversations turn back to Moderna, which is why, you know, that's the theme of this podcast. Yeah, I would love to transition into Moderna. On Abivax real quick, I mean, how do you have a company that was selling shares at $125 a share over subscribed round and then it now trades at $85? I mean, nothing's changed, right? Nothing's changed except for the momentum traders have that marginal buyer, like you said, has left from the momentum trade. But the story is very much intact. And I think it's going to be a bunch of nothing burgers as they get the Crohn's disease data or file first at the end of the year in UC. But I look at it as just be patient. And the story is great and nothing's changed. But it's working with the volatility and being excited when things go down. It's a hard mindset to not be fully positioned and to say, I'll use volatility in my favor. But, you know, no, I mean, this is the first instance of where I've seen such a large drawdown and something that I thought was fairly de -risked. And as bemused as I am, I agree with you. You just have to be patient and sit through it. And a lot of the times, like, and this case in particular has nothing to do with fundamentals where no one, because the Crohn's disease data is six months out, no one wants to sit through and add when they don't know whether it's going to turn around or whether, you know, we're close to the floor. And it's just risk off across the board. And even though it's a de -risked asset and it is clearly very cheap now at $6 billion enterprise, it's just the trade dynamics are such that no one has the liquidity to take on more risk. And a lot of the funds were already pretty oversized on this ABVX position and unhedged, too. You know, the guys I spoke to because they were so sure that the OB -FASMOD story is going to work. And then especially after the cancer scare and the malignancy scare this summer, everyone went oversized even more so. And, you know, and then people who are part of the offering, they already got their allocations in terms of sizing relative to the portfolio that they could have on this name. So it's just until the mutual funds have their year ends, I don't see that liquidity returning to these consensus names. And it's just unfortunate. But like you've also said, you need to be patient. And it's gone. It's not about the fundamentals, about the trade dynamics. And you have to respect the market when the trade dynamics take over."

10:39 – 14:07

"Yeah. So I was just going to double-click on what you're saying, Sidi, you know, in terms of timing. Right? In terms of timing, what, like, how do you think about it? How do you process it? You know, you've shared very publicly, this is one of the things I appreciate, you shared very publicly about the Capricorn situation. I think you were more or less right on the trade, but wrong on the time there. So I guess given everything you've just shared with us about your Moderna thesis, how do you grapple with that as, you know, you're managing your portfolio? Well, it's been hard and I've been very transparent. I post my, you know, returns publicly. I post my short positions publicly. I'm down— I hate to admit this, but I'm down 60% from highs this year. And, you know, I'm going through one of the largest drawdowns I have ever. But I guess, you know, when you swing that big, you're going to make these swings. I would have preferred not to, and I would have preferred to get my timing and my sizing and my risk management better."

49:43 – 50:41

"We recorded this conversation on October 13th while things were very much still in play. The only question is whether a year from now when we're here on this podcast, whether I will still be wrong or not. So we've got our first real interviewee guest, goes by CD19 on biotech Twitter, great investor, got a great Substack that has good following from biotech Twitter, has had"

0:20 – 0:49

"you're not being asked to believe it works. You're being asked to believe it works everywhere, first time, forever."

23:56 – 24:02

"So it's a lottery ticket with 34 numbers on it where roughly 2 are live and nobody tell you— nobody can tell you in advance which 2."

46:54 – 47:04

"I hate to admit this, but I'm down 60% from highs this year."

50:21 – 50:24

"I'm so sorry, take my watch. What was on his wrist? It was a big dick move, right? Oh my God. And he was like, no, I'm not taking this diamond-encrusted presidential—"

53:04 – 53:15

"if you can tell me the definition of kayfabe, I'll give you $1,000. And I've never ever had to pay up on that bet. Isn't"

1:18 – 1:23

"I didn't really want to wear anyone else's brand. I wanted to try and become my own. And, you know, ambition in certain circles is heavily encouraged, and then in other places, you know, they don't, they don't want you to."

76:15 – 76:27

"Our guest behind today's brand went from mopping floors at £7 an hour in a cupcake shop to helping scale that same business to over 10 million pound in yearly revenue. >>"

0:00 – 0:08

"And so as far as prompting goes, uh, the, the one, one tip I want to offer is something I, I have told people a lot is sufficiently advanced prompting is indistinguishable from sufficiently advanced executive communication. So I've actually referred to— this is an executive comms workshop from Heavybit that is the best I've ever seen in my career, and they teach this thing called the SCQA model. Just, just Google it. It's a, it's a thing like people have done prompting for decades. It's just called executive communications. It's like when one person has to communicate to thousands of people down the org chart, this is what you do. So situation, complication, question, and answer is how you write the memo. But obviously sometimes you don't have the answer, but you can actually at least list out the SC and Q, and then they have some examples in there. So just leaving breadcrumbs for people if they want to"

29:44 – 30:30