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The Moderna Bear Case with Seedy19

FOMO Investing

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“it's the most ambitious thing in oncology, but it's also the hardest. Like, and in terms of what their narrative is, you're not being asked to believe it works. You're being asked to believe it works everywhere, first time, forever, and that all of the money in that whole space will go to Moderna. And usually markets price like one of those things. We're pricing in all of those things into Moderna stock right now. And, you know, like you said with melanoma as well, like, it's not hard to understand, like, in oncology, melanoma is the easy exam. It's like, it has the highest mutation load of any common cancer. There are hundreds of targets to choose from. It's already responds to immunotherapy better than anything else, right? And in Moderna's case, you dive a little bit deeper as well. And the trials that worked were an adjuvant melanoma where patients are already surgically cleared, no visible tumor, immune system's intact. It's already the single most forgiving setting in oncology. And almost all of us are one degree of separation from someone who's had cancer. And we know what the toll it can take. So everyone should be able to understand what I mean when I say, like, surgically cleared, no visible tumor, immune system intact. Because we've seen the other side of that, too. And most of the value in the model and in the pricing is coming from lung, kidney, and bladder tumors with a fraction of the mutations. Kidney cancer has 10 times fewer. Fewer targets, harder vaccine. And then you don't have to look further. You're looking into the same space. In the last couple of months, there's five randomized control trials of mRNA cancer vaccines, right? You had Moderna's phase two, which was keynote in adjuvant melanoma win. And then this one, which is a win, which is waiting for the HR data. But irrespective to that, you know, you have to acknowledge that the interim hit. And then you had BioNTech in metastatic melanoma missed, in adjuvant collateral stop for futility, in head and neck today, which we literally, you know, the market was told today, that also missed. So out of five in the same space, using the same technique, only two of them won in the easiest of cancers to treat. And it was the same drug, same tumor, in the same setting. Every randomized test outside of that, outside adjuvant melanoma has failed. And there's no evidence to suggest that, like, that's the only evidence, that's the concrete evidence there. Everything else is an idea. Yeah. But the market's telling me that that idea has actually already been successful and Moderna is going to nail the launch and they're going to be able to split the economics with Merck and still hit, you know, garner all the revenues in the whole space for all the patients. And, you know, everyone's just going to adapt to using vaccines and there'll be no other need for other treatments and the whole time will just go to them. It doesn't work like that. And that's the thing which, over time, will become more and more clear. And that's what I'm trying to warn investors from, too. Like, you're sitting on a ticking time bomb. At some point, this is going to unravel, whether it unravels now in the 200s or 250s. And when it unravels, it's not just unraveling to, like, 150. This is a double -digit stock because that will accurately reflect the revenues that they're going to generate.”

FOMO Investing
The Moderna Bear Case with Seedy19
11
Oct 19, 2026